Seismic hazard assessment of Iran by Ising cellular automation modeling

Document Type: Regular Paper


Department of Earth Sciences, Shiraz Branch Islamic Azad University, Shiraz, Iran


It is essential to use statistical models and theoretical analysis of the data for preparing comprehensive geological and seismic hazard mapping. A cellular automaton consists of an array of cells, each one of which has a finite number of possible states, together with a rule for updating all cells simultaneously based only on the states of neighboring cells. In the present paper, Ising cellular automation modeling has been used for establishing temporal relations between the energy releases of the seismic events that occurred in neighboring parts of the crust. The catalogue is divided into time intervals, and the region is divided into cells which are declared active or inactive by means of a threshold energy release criterion. Thus, a pattern of active and inactive cells which evolves over time is determined. The best model is chosen by maximizing the mutual information between the past and the future states. Finally, a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Map is given for the different energy releases considered. The method has been applied to the wide range of Iran's geological and geophysical data and Iran catalogue from ISC and USGS from 1960 to 2009, (ISC and USGS).